National Infrastructure Pipeline: Numbers Behind the Report

national infrastructure

Industry:

January 10, 2020

Overview:

National Infrastructure Pipeline Report was released by Finance Minister on 31st December’19. Government plan is Rs 102 lakh crore investment in 6 years.Let us look at it more closely.

Issues:

Was it necessary to package it as 100 lakh crore plan ?

There is some data provided in NIP report. We have to see the past data and projected investments together. Investments grew at 18.87, 11.11, 21.43, 8.24, 10.87 (%) in FY13 to 18. It fell 1.96 % in FY19.

Now let us look at the plan. Investments to grow at 36.00, 43.38, -2.56, -27.37, -7.25,    -13.28 (%) in FY20 to FY25. Data for 12.21 lakh crore is not provided ( no phasing ).

Instead of the plan, If investment grew at 10% every year from FY19, then total investment from FY20-25 would be 95 lakh cr, and if it grew at 14 % ( CAGR from FY13-18), it would be 113 lakh crore. Government plan is Rs 102 lakh crore in 6 years.

Where are the new investments ?

According to the report, out of the total expected capital expenditure of Rs. 102 lakh crore, projects worth Rs 42.7 lakh crore (42%) are under implementation, projects worth Rs 32.7 lakh crore (32%) are in conceptualization stage and rest are under development.

Did the national electricity plan change ?

Vision 2025 for Power (in the NIP Report): Total capacity: 619 GW: Thermal: 50%, renewable : 39%, hydro : 9%, nuclear :2% ; Substantial increase in per capita electricity consumption to 1,616 kWh; Renewable energy’s share in consumption to increase to ~19%

CEA NEP plan released in Jan’18: Installed capacity by Mar’2027: Total: 619 GW – Hydro 63 GW (10.2 %), Coal + Lignite 238 GW (38.5%), Gas 25 GW (4.2%), Nuclear 16.9GW (2.7%), Total Conventional Capacity 344 GW (55.6%) , Total Renewable Capacity 275 GW (44.4%)

I can match only the 619 GW figure.

GDP of 5 trillion dollar

Numbers are given in the report. India nominal GDP would grow at 8, 10.5, 12, 12.6, 12.86, 13.1 % in FY 20 to FY 25 to reach 365.49 lakh crore in FY25 that is 5 trillion dollar at current exchange rate.

References:

1. NIP : https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1598055
2. CEA NEP: http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/committee/nep/nep_jan_2018.pdf

Author:
Strategy Boffins Team
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